Monday, January 12, 2015

Looking at petroleum two ways

The Washington Post and the New York Times have two good stories about oil today. The Post considers where prices will move. The Times considers whether banks are overextended in loans to awl bidnesses.

I would say that the next big move will be occasioned by an event, probably political, that is unforeseeable, at least in details and timing. (One commenter at the Post proposed political instability in either Saudi Arabia or Nigeria, both good guesses but hardly sure things.)

It certainly makes the caterwauling of the rightwingers about the Keystone XL pipeline sound like the mewling and puking of ignorant babes, but what else is new? You won't find too many of the Keystone boosters demanding more investment in the undersized Guthrie chokepoint, which makes a bigger pipeline pretty much pointless.

Whether the pipeline is a good business idea or not, the rightwing claims about its importance have been ridiculous. Obama's energy policy -- pretty much, let the markets decide -- has worked well for consumers, has it not? Damned socialist.

Nevertheless, I am holding on to most of my petroleum and oil services stocks, even though they are taking a beating. But I am a buy-and-hold guy when it comes to capital investments, not a flipper.

(A commenter claims that one of the "peak oil" blogs has shut down in despair. I haven't checked, because I have always thought that peak oil was a silly idea.)

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