Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Too much cocoa?

Although I  didn't notice, 2015 was supposed to be a tough year for chocolate eaters. Now Rabobank predicts (via Bloomberg News) a surplus of cocoa in 2016. Good news for most, I suppose.

The prediction depends upon more normal rainfall and continued political stability in West Africa. Neither a surety, especially the political stability. West Africa is in the Koran Belt and the expansion of the current Islamic purification movement seems as likely to extend to West Africa as anywhere else. 

If it is also true, as reported, that banana farmers are going to be hard hit by disease, then I would expect some to turn to cocoa -- the plants have similar growing preferences.

The ghost of Julian Simon must be chuckling. He scores over Paul Ehrlich again.

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