Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Math is hard for gun nuts

At the Washington Post, I made a comment that would have been familiar to readers of RtO. It elicted some self-satisfied rebuttals. Here's the thread:


1 American in 100 dies from gunfire. Let's talk about guns
Douglas Levene
Sorry it's 1 in 10,000. Math is hard.
10/3/2017 7:19 PM GMT-1000
steves68
ROFLMAO Uh no sorry 1% of the population does not die from gunfire. Stop making things up. The 2015 murder rate was 4.9 per 100,000 people. That's murder by all methods not just shooting.
10/3/2017 8:01 PM GMT-1000 [Edited]
steves68
Why do you people keep making these crazy things up? The total murder rate for 2015 was 4.9 per 100,000 so no 1% of the country is not being shot to death.
10/4/2017 10:39 AM GMT-1000
It is impossible to have a discussion with gun nuts, because they are both stupid and impervious to facts.

Perhaps a lesson from the acerbic press critic A.J. Liebling will serve to explain for the slow learners.  Liebling once chided the Washington newspapers for spending millions of dollars on prizes like electric coffee pots during a competitive circulation struggle. This was in the '40s.

The managements of both papers reacted in aggrieved fashion. In the past year, one wrote, the spending on incentive prizes had been only a few hundred thousand.

Liebling observed that that adds up to millions pretty quick. So it is with your chances as an American of being shot to death by one of your fellow citizens.  Your chance really is 1 in 100, since the average lifetime of an American is not 1 year but about 85.




5 comments:

  1. Liebling observed that that adds up to millions pretty quick. So it is with your chances as an American of being shot to death by one of your fellow citizens.

    You really had better be much more cautious about accusing others of innumeracy.

    Two-thirds of people who die by gunshot do it to themselves. Your chance of being shot by another person is therefore 1/3 of one percent. (Less than that, in fact, 1 in 370.)

    And then you make a further glaring mistake: the odds of being murdered are uniformly distributed over a lifetime, or across populations, or occupations (e.g., gang members compared to plumbers). They aren't, not even close.

    That's two crippling mistakes -- being charitable here -- in the space of two paras.

    And you are complaining about others being stupid and impervious to facts? Look in a mirror.

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  2. Why? Because you can't handle being called out for gross offenses against numeracy and logic?

    Your chance really is 1 in 100, since the average lifetime of an American is not 1 year but about 85.

    Contradicted by facts easily available to anyone who isn't stupid and impervious to facts: 1 in 387 means you are wrong by a factor of four.

    Own it.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I have decided to eliminate racists from my life. You included.

    I don't understand why you and erp want to hang around but you are not welcome. Go away

    ReplyDelete
  4. Harry, I'm not a racist, but you are a world class slanderer (and quite the racist yourself, as I have already established; do you want a link?)

    But the point in play here is that for someone so willing to call others stupid and impervious to facts, in this post you have conducted multiple assaults on facts and reason.

    Instead of shouting "SQUIRREL", maybe you should address them.

    ReplyDelete